Unseen Forces: Climate change shaping India’s geopolitical and security threats

In India, where the geography, politics, and security are already delicate, climate change is emerging as a silent yet potent driver of instability.

Till now, climate change has often been seen as an environmental challenge hindering the economic development of the countries. But what goes unnoticed is that climate change is a force that shapes the country’s geopolitical and security threats.

The case in point is India. World Bank says India is experiencing unusual and unprecedented spells of hot weather, the decline in monsoon rainfall since 1950, and the retreat of Himalayan glaciers. Evidence indicates that parts of South Asia have become drier since the 1970s with an increase in the number of droughts.

India shares its riverine waters with China, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Myanmar. Climate change-induced glacial retreat and consequent lowering of river water are directly altering the regional geopolitics. Experts have opined the possibility of ‘water wars’ in Asia. Changes in the flow patterns of the rivers can alter the water-sharing agreements like the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan. Further, this can lead to border disputes where rivers act as international political boundaries, e.g., the Kali River between India and Nepal. Proxy conflicts can increase e.g., the creation of dams and barrages in upstream countries to store water can further intensify the already strained diplomatic relationships between India and China.

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The issue is not only related to transboundary rivers. Think about forced displacement and cross-border refugee influx. The Climate Action Network South Asia (CANSA) reports that approximately 45 million people in India alone, shall be compelled to migrate by 2050 due to climate disasters. In 2022, 7.1 million Bangladeshis were forcibly displaced by weather-related events. Sunderbans, the low-lying areas of India and Bangladesh are the most vulnerable regions. Rising sea levels and intensified cyclones are compelling the people to migrate and as Bangladesh has India on its three sides and an Ocean on the fourth, India will be getting more and more refugees shortly.

All these factors may lead to civil conflicts between the localities and foreigners. India as a resource-stressed country can face the brunt of such unchecked climate refugees. Several security experts also suspect the entry of terrorists along with these refugees further exacerbating the security risks. Such a situation has a domino effect; conflicts, leading to destabilisation, leading to ultra-nationalist populism, further leading to radicalisation.

Such unstable regions are also vulnerable to multiple other security threats like human trafficking, drugs and arms smuggling. Women and children form the most vulnerable sections in such regions. IDSA experts have established clear links between the organised crime, insurgency and terrorism.

The fragile regions of Jammu & Kashmir and also the North Eastern part are particularly vulnerable to weather extremes like intense rainfall, landslides, avalanches, floods, etc. Coincidentally these regions are also the ‘geopolitical hotspot’ as well as prone to insurgency supported by state actors. Insurgent groups may exploit these conditions to increase the attacks on government forces or infrastructure.

In line with this, we must also not forget the detrimental impacts of climate change on counter-terrorism efforts. Floods, drought, and other disasters consume significant Indian resources which in turn leads to the division of resources from counter-terrorism operations. Critical infrastructure is damaged which compromises our security apparatus.

Also, given the fact that India as well as other South Asian nations lack economic and technological strength to fight climate change, this region becomes more vulnerable to such incidents. That is why it becomes imperative for India as well as the other regional stakeholders to come together to recognise climate change as the ‘unseen force’ affecting regional peace and security.

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